The Future League continues comparing the results of NRL conference clashes against their non-conference counterparts.

Towards the conclusion of round four, The Future League revealed some very interesting statistics about NRL conference clashes over the first month of the 2015 season. The conclusion was this:

• there is a 35 per cent greater chance of an intra-conference match being decided by 6 points or less; and
• there is a 33 per cent greater chance of an intra-conference match being decided by 8 points or less.

But was this nothing more than an anomaly? Only continual analysis would reveal the answer.

There is a much smaller sample size to analyse between rounds five to eight. Out of the 32 matches played during this time, only five have been conference rivalries. In comparison, there were 11 intra-conference matches played between rounds one to four. That’s over a 50 per cent decrease in the space of a month.

Out of those five conference clashes:

• 40 per cent have been decided by 6 points or less; and
• 0 per cent have been decided by 8 points or less.

Out of 27 non-conference clashes (a figure five times the size of intra-conference matches);

• 33 per cent have been decided by 6 points or less; and
• 19 per cent have been decided by 8 points or less.

While intra-conference matches are left far behind in the “8 points or less” category, they still have a 7 per cent greater chance of being decided by 6 points or less.

In conclusion, even when against a larger group of non-conference matches, conference clashes still provide a statistically greater chance of results decided by less than a converted try.