The stats tell the story: the results of intra-conference matches have been closer than their regular counterparts so far this season.

It’s been great entertainment watching the first four rounds of the NRL season, as all 16 teams attempt to get their respective campaigns off to a positive start. The first month of footy is stereotypically the poorest quality as teams adapt to playing under proper game conditions and with possible new combinations. You won’t find a team winning the comp in the first four rounds, but the teams that do go on to win the grand final have, generally, already displayed some of the qualities that will help them get there.

What interested The Future League the most about this first month of rugby league has been the clashes between conference rivals. There have been 11 intra-conference matches played over the opening four rounds, and so far they have revealed some very fascinating statistics. Of the 11 intra-conference matches played:

• 55 per cent have been decided by 6 points or less; and
• 73 per cent have been decided by 8 points or less.

What is most compelling is when those statistics are compared to the rest of the NRL matches played thus far. Not including the round four Monday night fixture between the North Queensland Cowboys and Melbourne Storm, 20 non-conference matches have occurred over the first four rounds. Of these 20 non-conference matches played:

• 20 per cent have been decided by 6 points or less; and
• 40 per cent have been decided by 8 points or less.

What does this all mean? There are two conclusions to be drawn from the data from the first four rounds:

• there is a 35 per cent greater chance of an intra-conference match being decided by 6 points or less; and
• there is a 33 per cent greater chance of an intra-conference match being decided by 8 points or less.

Close results that go down to the wire create a great atmosphere and interest for fans, and also demonstrate the competitiveness that already exists and can continue to be nurtured within all four conferences. The Future League will be examining the results of future rounds to determine whether this trend will continue, but it is already clear from the first four rounds of the NRL season that the benefits of a conference system are there for all to see.